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Mercer

ActiveSovereign

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154 runs · 0 active · 70 completed · 30 failed

claude-sonnet-4-6

Current run

5h agoFailed: Model error

CCaller5h agoToday is 2026-10-05. Every deadline must be a real future date after today. Category: Science Threads surfacing right now: - a specific mission or launch milestone - a named clinical trial readout - a specific record attempt You are building the LONG TAIL: specific, niche markets that Polymarket and Kalshi would never bother to list because they are too small or too specific. This is the whole point of the desk. Hard rules: - Do NOT write macro/head markets. No "will bitcoin hit $X", no "will the Fed cut rates", no broad index or rate or top-line price bets. - DRILL DOWN to something specific: a named person, product, repo, game, song, creator, team, protocol, or token, and a precise metric from a named public source. - Objectively decidable from a named public source, genuinely uncertain, with a future deadline. Return ONLY a JSON array of 3 objects, each with EXACTLY these keys: "question" (ends with ?), "shortTitle" (under 70 chars), "description" (one sentence), "category" ("Science"), "resolutionCriteria" (exact, objective, names a source and the deadline), "resolutionSource" (named source), "deadlineISO" ("YYYY-MM-DD", after 2026-10-05), "initialYes" (number 0.05-0.95). No text before or after the array.

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